Model Mods - MA, PYPL, SOFI, V - 4 TruTweaks

Research evidence excerpt

Model Mods - MA, PYPL, SOFI, V - 4 TruTweaks

ptions (PSP TPV has re-accelerated

to low-double digit FxN growth), favorable FX movements, and higher float revenues

(we expect zero interest rate cuts in 2026). Our bottom-line estimates are also heading

lower (adj. EPS – 2Q26E: -4.3%, 2026E: -2.1%, 2027E: -0.7%) due to the lower top-

line estimates as well as company guidance suggesting higher near-term OpEx growth

(partially offset in the out-years by their longer-term savings expectations resulting from

AI / streamlining the business). Due to our lower 2027 estimates, we are lowering

our price target to $44 (previously $45). The $44 price target reflects an 8x 2027 P/

E multiple, which compares to 2028E EPS growth of ~14% YoY (i.e. a 0.5x growth-

adjusted multiple – lower than peers given that the growth comes almost entirely from

a lower share count while EBIT growth should remain slow).

SoFi (SOFI, Hold). We are updating our SoFi model following its 1Q26 earnings

report (see our initial take here). Following SoFi’s ~3.5ppts revenue beat in 1Q, we

are lowering our 2Q top-line forecast but tweaking our full-year estimate a bit higher

(adj.net revenue – 2Q26E: -0.6%, 2026E: +0.8%). This is driven by lower gain on

sale assumptions for the loan platform business, as well as lower expectations for

the Technology Platform segment, offset by faster balance sheet growth (and revenue

growth for the Lending segment). Our 2027 adj. net revenue forecast is modestly

higher (+0.3%) due to stronger assumptions for origination growth as well as ramping

crypto trading volume. Our more mixed change to bottom-line estimates (adj. EBITDA:

2Q26E: -17%, 2026E: +0.1%, 2027E: -2.3%) reflects higher OpEx growth associated

with marketing campaigns and product investments (e.g.