FDX: Freight Setup Materializing; Sell-Side Lunch Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

FDX: Freight Setup Materializing; Sell-Side Lunch Takeaways

Equity Research

Company Update — May 11, 2026

Parcel

FedEx Corporation

Freight Setup Materializing; Sell-Side Lunch Takeaways Overweight

Price Target: $450.00

Our Call Ticker FDX

Upside/(Downside) to Target 18.8%

We attended FedEx Freight's sell-side lunch and were encouraged at the tech/operational

progress toward spin. Pricing/network alignment were key points and ultimately, we Price (05/11/2026) $378.90

continue to think targets are reasonable, providing value creation for shares. 52 Week Range $214.35 - 404.03

Market Cap (MM) $90,557

Post-Spin Setup Materializing - Through pre-spin events the set-up is materializing Average Daily Value (MM) $689

as an opportunity to improve an under managed asset. Pricing appears to have been Dividend Yield 1.5%

limited by top-down strategy designed to benefit parcel, and customer service was

sacrificed for single platform tech. Along with transformation and TSA costs this results $ (May) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

in a sub-12% margin post-spin. Key will be timing, particularly pricing, but a 15% target EPS

seems conservative supporting a multiple at/near parity with peers. 2026E 3.83 A 4.82 A 5.25 A 5.93 E 19.85 E

2027E 4.77 E 5.66 E 5.45 E 8.12 E 24.00 E

Focused on Minimizing Transition Costs - While the company did not provide Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

incremental details, confidence on limiting the TSA and transformation costs, which NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

comprise 50 bps of sequential margin headwind immediately beyond F26, was high. The

Christian Wetherbeemajority of TSAs relate to technology transition, the bulk of which have been completed

to date (90% of Freight systems and 75% of service centers).