Americas Agribusiness: Ben's Quarterly Fresh Fertilizer Finds

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Agribusiness: Ben's Quarterly Fresh Fertilizer Finds

Equity Research

14 May 2026

Americas Agribusiness

Ben's Quarterly Fresh Fertilizer

Finds

In this quarterly update, we give the latest S&D data and Americas Agribusiness

pricing forecasts along with views on export quotas, price NEUTRAL

drivers, and demand destruction among other topics amidst Americas Agribusiness

Benjamin M. Theurer

the Iran Conflict. +52 55 5241 3322

benjamin.theurer@barclays.com

BCCB, Mexico

Key Developments

• Fertilizer prices are unchanged 2WoW compared to our last update (was -6%) while Rahi Parikh

+1 212 526 0150

fertilizer affordability is up 4% on a MTD basis (was +8%). We use S&P Global, Green

rahi.parikh@barclays.com

Markets, Bloomberg, AgriCensus, and USDA data along with our own insights for the following BCI, US

updates. See Figures 1 - 2.

Ryan Lavin

° Going through some news updates, on exports, more data is pointing toward limited if any +1 212 526 8713

ryan.lavin1@barclays.com phosphate exports, as S&P noted that if Chinese phosphate producers gain permission to

BCI, US

export, their profits would actually be squeezed. ICL management added to this, saying

that it does not expect more exports from China this year. Likely, we will see some Reid Monahan

exports in 2Q based on previously granted export permits, with some chance for +1 212 526 7506

reid.monahan@barclays.com export windows more for diplomatic considerations rather than economic. On urea,

exports seem more reasonable, with S&P pointing to overcapacity within the country which

could gather solid profits. Green Markets estimates a coal-based cost of $230/ton.

Moreover, the E15 bill was passed by the US House of Representatives yesterday, May

13th, supporting year-round sales of E15 fuel.