Global Energy - Biofuel: Low-carbon fuel - recent news flow and read-across

Research evidence excerpt

Global Energy - Biofuel: Low-carbon fuel - recent news flow and read-across

Equity Research

14 May 2026

Global Energy - Biofuel

Low-carbon fuel - recent news flow

and read-across

We observe rapid shifts in energy markets are being met with European Integrated Energy

divergent biofuel policies, as governments adjust targets to POSITIVE

balance long-term security and sustainability against near- NorthNEUTRALAmerica Midstream and Refining

term affordability. This note reviews global regulation European Integrated Energy

Naisheng Cui, CFAupdates and key takeaways from biofuel producers.

+44 (0)20 7773 0486

naisheng.cui@barclays.com

The surge in fossil fuel prices since the onset of the Middle East crisis has accelerated policy Barclays, UK

action across biofuels and broader fuel markets. While many measures reinforce a long‑term

Lydia Rainforth, CFA

shift towards energy security, diversification and low‑carbon fuels, some near‑term target +44 (0)20 3134 6669

delays reflect efforts to ease affordability pressures. lydia.rainforth@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Both European and US biofuel producers reported strong Q1 margins as market fundamentals

tightened, with management commentaries pointing to a constructive outlook. Thea Lacroix

+44 (0)20 3555 3088

Key takeaways thea.lacroix@barclays.com

•• Neste reported a better than expected Q1 RP margin at $856/ton. Vara consensus (as of 13 Ramachandra Kamath

May) for Q2 RP margin is at $1,000/ton, a historical high if it materialises. +91 (0)22 61752308

ramchandra.kamath@barclays.com

•• Germany has passed increased renewable fuel targets under EU RED III. We estimate potential Barclays, UK

1.3mt incremental demand (base case) for Renewable Diesel (RD). This compares to 5.1mt of