HBX Group International: Guidance no worse than we expected; valuation cheap but visibility limited

Research evidence excerpt

HBX Group International: Guidance no worse than we expected; valuation cheap but visibility limited

Equity Research

EMEA Internet

14 May 2026

HBX Group International

Guidance no worse than we

expected; valuation cheap but

HBX.MC/HBX SM OVERWEIGHTvisibility limited

Unchanged

Numbers delivery pre M East conflict shows strategic action is EMEA Internet POSITIVE

working. No surprise guide cut; reassuring no worse than Unchanged

where we had already cut to. Remains cheap at 6x P/E but not Price Target lowered -2% fromEUREUR10.0010.20

obvious what near-term catalyst to rerate is beyond take- Price (13-May-26) EUR 6.48

private speculation. Potential Upside/Downside +54.3% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

HBX is a cyclical business and several others in the industry have warned, so seeing the Market Cap (EUR mn) 1602

guide cut on results is no surprise. It is quite possible that the business would be hitting Shares Outstanding (mn) 247.24

numbers for FY26 without the Middle East conflict (a -4pt to TTV/revenues) and FX Free Float (%) 44.28

headwinds (2/3pts). Absent the macro disruption, this could have been a catalyst to 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.4

rebuild confidence and rerate. But the macro disruption is a reality; in this context the Dividend Yield (%) 1.16

revised guidance seems reasonable and consistent with our previously cut numbers (we Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A

expect consensus to work down). 6x P/E is (too) cheap, in our view. That said, we struggle Current BVPS (EUR) 2.78

on a catalyst for a rerating until macro improves and the business is able to deliver on a Source: Bloomberg

few quarters in line with guidance. The exception, of course, is if HBX goes private (see

article), which we analysed in our recent LBO scenario analysis here.