US Daily Data Recap "Core PCE tracking at 0.29% & energy roundup" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "Core PCE tracking at 0.29% & energy roundup" Wilcox

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasCore PCE tracking at 0.29% & energy roundup

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

Following today's PPI report, we expect core PCE prices rose 0.29% in April, revised amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

down 4 bp from our post-CPI translation yesterday. That would leave the 12-month core

PCE inflation rate at 3.33% in April, up from 3.20% in March and 2.67% in April of last Jonathan Pingle

year. Tomorrow's release of April import prices, particularly the international airfares Economist

price index, could alter this translation by a few basis points. Looking ahead, we expect jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

core PCE inflation will rise to 3.4% in May, likely the peak for this year, or close to it.

Alan Detmeister

We round up the suite of high-frequency energy data below. Gasoline prices continued alan.detmeister@ubs.com

to climb into May, with just a little relief in recent days. Brent crude oil prices remain +1-212-713 1222

elevated. Futures still suggest a moderation by year-end, albeit to a level well above pre-

Abigail Wattconflict levels. Oil inventories continue to decline. Prior to the conflict, oil inventories

excluding the SPR were historically elevated, but dipped just below the 2021 to 2025 abigail.watt@ubs.com

average for this point in the year this week. Exports of crude oil and petroleum products +1-212-882 6929

remain elevated, helping to ease supply constraints elsewhere, but domestic production

Jalen Nichols

has remained relatively flat since the beginning of the conflict. Oil rig counts have moved

sideways since the beginning of the conflict, with little evidence that increased oil prices jalen.nichols@ubs.com