New Zealand Economic Comment "Mixed inflation expectations in Q2-26. Bud..."

Research evidence excerpt

New Zealand Economic Comment "Mixed inflation expectations in Q2-26. Bud..."

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

New Zealand Economic Comment Economics

New ZealandMixed inflation expectations in Q2-26. Budget in

25/26 beating $2bn, as expenses lift ~2¼% y/y Stephen Wu

Economist

stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

RBNZ now has a keen focus on inflation expectations, given rising CPI George Tharenou

The RBNZ at its Apr-26 MPR meeting noted the return to 2% inflation "requires core Economist

inflation and wage growth to remain contained and medium- and long-term inflation george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

expectations to remain around 2%". Core inflation in Q1 remained stable and well

within the band. Wages growth (Labour Cost Index) at 2% y/y in Q1 also remained Stephanie La

contained. Hence, the risk we had been flagging was that heading into the May-26 MPS Associate Economist

meeting inflation expectations would start to de-anchor. stephanie.la@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2655

RBNZ conducts three surveys of expectations Izzy Lowe

Associate Economist1) Survey of expectations (released today): Quarterly survey of business leaders and

izzy.lowe@ubs.com

professional forecasters conducted after each CPI release. Q2-26 sample size was 40 +61-2-9324 2651

respondents. 2) Household inflation expectations (due 20/5): Quarterly online survey of

~1000 nationally representative sample of NZ residents aged 18 and over that varies

quarter to quarter. 3) Business Expectations Survey (21/5): Quarterly representative

sample survey of NZ businesses. In Q1-26, 739 businesses were surveyed.

Survey of expectations: 1yr & 2yr inflation expectations surge; 5yr+ falls

The RBNZ's Survey of expectations was the first of three RBNZ surveys released ahead of

the May-26 MPS meeting.