Global Sustainability "Postcard from the US: not turbulent" Kalb

Research evidence excerpt

Global Sustainability "Postcard from the US: not turbulent" Kalb

pre-conflict on Middle East supply disruptions. Physical markets are still pricing

in a shorter disruption and upside risks for 2026/2027 remain if outages persist,

but 2Q is most likely to be the peak pricing quarter. "For farmers and the

broader industry, that pricing shock is coming at the same time as higher diesel

pricing; diesel is a key input in agriculture.

Swapping dependencies? Critical materials still very much in focus (see Critical

Minerals Decoupling & Reshoring Accelerates, Critical Materials: Shaping the

Future of Global Supply Chains). China exports on green technologies saw an

uptick in March, generally we would consider that likely to continue (though

frequently changing end-destination import policy restrictions of course remain a

factor). One key discussion topic is around the risks of swapping one

dependency, fossil fuels, for another in the form of supply chain

dependencies on green technologies. Critical materials remain a key potential

leverage point (see Rare earths to magnet: mission critical?).

European policy direction a significant area of interest, including whether

European regulators hold the line on "green" policy. We note with interest an

increasingly robust framing from the regulator around the need to strengthen

energy resilience and accelerate the clean energy transition: see AccelerateEU:

new push for energy security.

Grids remain a key area of interest, one which we only see as increasing in

importance. See also EMEA Energy Security: the grid, the real bottleneck?.

Widely discussed: the "Math" problem of solving for 20mm BBOE of exports out

of the ME (as discussed in Energy Transition: Forward Looking and The Morning