Global Sustainability "ESG news & views, Vol. 52, May 2026" Kalb

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Global Sustainability "ESG news & views, Vol. 52, May 2026" Kalb

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Global Sustainability Equities

GlobalESG news & views, Vol. 52, May 2026

Global Sustainability

Victoria Kalb

News & Views (continued on P4) Analyst

vicki.kalb@ubs.com

+65-6495 4584

How could half a trillion dollars of Power Capex be spent by '30?

Alisa Dudchak

AI drives incremental power demand, but real-world constraints determine what

Analyst

actually gets built first. There have been a lot of competing and often surprising alisa.dudchak@ubs.com

solutions that have gone against conventional wisdom, and different pockets of +44-20-7567 0844

investors have placed more emphasis on different parts of the value chain. How much it

will cost (FCF impacts) and how fast it can be delivered (delays in AI rollout) have been

primary questions from technology investors and, to a lesser extent, industrial investors. ESG

On the flip side, energy and utility investors are focused on stranded capital and the Environmental

surprising solutions that go against traditional norms, such as fuel cells as baseload. A Socialkey question: what economically gets built for a given scenario that does not result in GovernanceM

stranded capital. We built a bottom-up model on the "Capex Dispatch Curve". For a

given percentage of compounded power growth through 2030, the curve shows what

power generation solutions are built based upon bounded capacity constraints for the

solutions. Given capacity is limited, it helps investors see what gets built next from an

economic perspective. Key findings include cost gaps across technologies have

compressed significantly, batteries clear first, simple cycle gas & fuel cells emerge as