Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

European Trucks: "1Q26 Trucks Tracker Wk. 2 & 3: Driving

forward"

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Demand outlook positive amidst some caution and higher costs pass through

Demand trends remain positive despite a number of caveats regarding uncertainty in the

Middle East, as trends were largely unchanged vs week 1. An area where we saw a slight

increased level of caution was extended/slower decision making outside of AI & infra

construction, highlighted by a small number of industrials. Customers delaying decisions

is understandable given the uncertainty, but the concern is whether this could:

1) become more frequent across customers and 2) lead to cancellations. So far, this

appears not to have materialised. Given that costs are expected to be passed on, higher

inflation could lead to higher interest rates. This would be a clear negative for the OEMs

due to weaker end market demand, as well as a tougher truck financing proposition

given truckers use credit to finance truck purchases. A key Q is also whether OEMs have

pricing ability to pass these costs to customers or if they are absorbed by the OEMs.

•Truck demand: Orders appeared to remain largely unaffected for the month of April as

the ACT print was relatively in line and OEM commentary suggests European orders

were slower, but remained at a good level. Freight activity outlook was generally positive

and higher fuel costs are being passed on.

•Industrial demand is positive despite ongoing uncertainty, but two industrial players are

seeing some customer hesitancy that has led to delayed decision making. We

acknowledge this is a very small sample, but should more customers shift capex

decisions to the right, this could lead to an orders slowdown for trucks.