Inwit "No replicability but no incentive for resolution" (Neutral) Cabejsek

Research evidence excerpt

Inwit "No replicability but no incentive for resolution" (Neutral) Cabejsek

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

Inwit Equities

ItalyNo replicability but no incentive for resolution

Wireless Communications

12-month rating Neutral

Non-existential but non-trivial

Inwit's shares have taken a material hit recently as anchor tenants threaten to exit its 12m price target €7.60

infrastructure. Ultimately, we believe that the threat is unlikely to materialize but at the Prior : €10.30

same time we see no near-term resolution to the dispute. We therefore remain Neutral

Price (13 May 2026) €7.23

and cut our PT to €7.6 from €10.3. Inside this note, we detail potential ways out of the

current situation, assess the likelihood of the anchors' three pillar exit strategy and RIC: INWT.MI BBG: INW IM

provide a scenario analysis where Inwit's value could be between €4.6 to €10.8 per

Trading data and key metrics

share (Figure 11UBSvaluationsforInwitbasedonarangeofscenarios). Our base case remains an agreement where e.g. a CPI cap and a c10%

52-wk range €10.73-6.27

discount on legacy MSA fees worth c€70m p.a. could be exchanged for infra obligation

revenues worth c€110m p.a. as MNOs also reap the benefit of materially lower spectrum Market cap. €6.73b/US$7.89b

fees. In an adverse scenario of an MSA break down, we think Inwit could lose c1/3 of Shares o/s 932m (ORD)

anchor revenues which may be partly mitigated by pricing power in non-replicable areas Free float 40%

and vacated tenancies for OLOs in high demand areas for a net loss worth c€180m p.a. Avg. daily volume ('000) 4,534

Avg. daily value (m) €35.4

No incentive to break deadlock in near term Common s/h equity (12/26E) €3.35b

Barring intervention from authorities, we see two possible catalysts for a resolution, P/BV (12/26E) 2.0x