ABN AMRO "Beat and raise. Upside risk to NII guidance and capital return. Buy."

Research evidence excerpt

ABN AMRO "Beat and raise. Upside risk to NII guidance and capital return. Buy."

ABN AMRO UBS Research

Changes to estimates and UBS vs consensus

Figure 1: ABN reported strong Q1 results, with beats across the board with the exception of weak Other Income, and in-

line CET1. We increase our NII forecasts to reflect base effects and higher forwards, reduce our costs to reflect the faster

plan delivery/ and new guidance (but crucially with roughly the same landing point in 2028), and lower credit losses to

reflect the continued outperformance. Finally we increase our capital distributions reflecting both higher earnings and

the capital to be released from the removal of mortgage RWA floors.

ABN repo rted strong Q1 r esults , with beats acros s the board

with t he exception o f w eak Ot her In com e, and in -li ne CET 1. We inc rea se our

NII forecasts to r eflec t bas e effec ts an d highe r for wa rds, reduc e our c osts to refl ect t he

faster plan d elive ry/ a nd new guida nc e (bu t cru ci ally with ro ughly the sa me la nding p

oint in 2028), and lower cred it los se s t o r ef lec t t he cont inued o utper forma nc e. Fi nally w

e increase our cap it al d is tr ib ut io ns re fle cti ng bot h hig her e

arnings and the ca pi tal to b e re le as ed f rom t he r emo val of mor tga ge R

WA floors.

Source: UBSe

Figure 2: Compared to VA consensus, on the back of the strong Q1 result, we see clear upside risk to near term revenues,

and are largely in-line on costs when considering the treatment of restructuring costs (which we strip out), although we

see some small upside medium term from the earlier cost reductions. We also see significantly higher capital distribution

potential where we believe there is clear upside to consensus from the removal of the mortgage floors.