Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan "Maintaining Buy: Can increase profit next fiscal..."

Research evidence excerpt

Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan "Maintaining Buy: Can increase profit next fiscal..."

1.5 146.8 -3 144.6

leverage global expertise appear to have become more sophisticated since then. Our

12/27E 197.5 184.1 -7 182.3

estimates for FY12/27 factor in a higher price impact of around ¥10bn, about half of the

12/28E 239.9 223.7 -7 216.2

level seen back then. Investors have voiced concerns about whether additional price

hikes can absorb costs in a tough consumer environment. However, even in the off- Rei Ihara

season of Q1 FY12/26, and despite limited uptake of recent price hikes, the company Analyst

was able to generate around ¥3bn in gross profit through improvements in volume and rei.ihara@ubs.com

the price mix. We believe around ¥10bn in cost increases can be offset by growth in +81-3-5208 6227

gross profit, even in the current business environment. Ryunosuke Watanabe

Associate Analyst

Medium-term plan targets look challenging, but steady profit growth seems ryunosuke.watanabe@ubs.com

achievable +81-3-5208 6243

For FY12/26, we forecast business profit of ¥36.4bn (+¥11.9bn yoy), exceeding

guidance of ¥35.0bn. We believe strong progress in H1 earnings and additional price

hikes will offset ¥4.0bn in incremental cost increases arising from the Middle East

conflict. We forecast profit of ¥13.4bn in Q2 FY12/26 (+¥5.4bn yoy), with profit growth

momentum accelerating more than in Q1. For FY12/27, we forecast profit of ¥43.4bn (+

¥7.0bn yoy), slightly below the medium-term plan target of ¥45-50bn. For FY12/28, we

forecast ¥50.2bn (+¥6.8bn).

Valuation: Current share price implies only modest increase in profits next fiscal

year

Highlights (¥b) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 868.6 892.7 893.8 915.4 938.9 951.5 964.5 977.8