First Read: Isuzu Motors "Q4 results: the Middle East impact could be..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Isuzu Motors "Q4 results: the Middle East impact could be..."

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesIsuzu Motors

Q4 results: the Middle East impact could be Japan

smaller than initially assumed Automobile Manufacturers

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target ¥2,200.0

Key takeaways: the ME conflict presents both risks and opportunities

The market reacted positively to FY3/27 OP guidance calling for double digit yoy growth,

with the share price rising 7% on the 13 May. The gap between FY3/27 OP guidance Price (13 May 2026) ¥2,196

and our forecast mainly stems from volume assumptions, pointing to the potential for a RIC: 7202.T BBG: 7202 JP

significantly more favourable regional mix in FY3/27. Marginal profit is substantial in

Trading data and key metrics

regions set for volume growth, while it is low in regions such as ASEAN and the Middle

East, where volumes are likely to decline. In the near term, the emergence of volume 52-wk range ¥2,919-1,796

impacts from the Middle East conflict could weigh on the share price. However, over the Market cap. ¥1,509b/US$9.57b

medium term, reconstruction related demand for commercial vehicles (CVs) could Shares o/s 687m (ORD)

surface. Assessments are therefore likely to diverge depending on whether investors Free float 57%

focus on risks or opportunities and on their investment horizon. We continue to focus on Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,369

near term downside risks and thus maintain a Neutral rating. Avg. daily value (m) ¥5,747.7

Common s/h equity (03/26E) ¥1470b

Q4 results: volumes broadly flat amid ME impact P/BV (03/26E) 1.0x

Relative to the revised company plan announced in Q3 (February 2026), FY3/26 sales Net debt to EBITDA (03/26E) 3.0x

volumes missed target by 2% for both CVs and pickups.