Ambiq Micro Inc "Growth Inflections with Atomiq Still Ahead" (Neutral) Arcuri

Research evidence excerpt

Ambiq Micro Inc "Growth Inflections with Atomiq Still Ahead" (Neutral) Arcuri

exposure to wearable markets. FY26 opex is expected to be ~$85MM versus our

prior $87MM, driven by engineering headcount, contract engineering, and $7-

10MM of IP purchases supporting the development of Apollo340 and

Atomiq110/120.

Apollo340 is the key margin and diversification catalyst for 2027. Management

expects Apollo340 to sample in 1H27, with initial customer ramps toward the end

of 2027 and a more meaningful revenue contribution in 2028. The product is

being pulled forward by a large wearable customer timeline, but is also targeted at

higher-margin non-wearable applications where AMBQ sees longer-term

opportunity across medical, industrial, smart home/buildings, and other edge AI

use cases. Additionally, Atomiq110 is on track for tape-out toward the end of

2026, with an initial customer ramp expected in late 2027. Atomiq120 has active

engagement with potential early customers in use cases like smart glasses where

the chip is needed to perform at ultra-low-power.

Customer concentration improved and the pipeline is broadening. The three

largest customers represented ~71% of Q1'26 sales, down from 86% for the

same three customers in Q1'25. China end-customer sales were 13.7% of revenue

versus 6.2% in the prior-year period. Non-wearables now represent ~25% of the

pipeline, and management expects medical, industrial, and smart home revenue

to more than double in 2026.

Cash burn should improve with revenue scale, but breakeven still requires a larger

quarterly run-rate. Management reiterated that at ~$21MM quarterly opex and

~46% GM, AMBQ needs roughly $47MM of quarterly revenue to reach

profitability. Q2 is still below that level, but the higher revenue baseline and pull-