Corcept Therapeutics "Lifyorli poised for accelerated launch in Ovarian..."

Research evidence excerpt

Corcept Therapeutics "Lifyorli poised for accelerated launch in Ovarian..."

he burden of proof for

TEVA is high in this case. Therefore, we believe Korlym may continue to maintain stable market share

and see minimal price deterioration from here. Meanwhile, onboarding of the new spec pharmacy

supports continuity, underpinning modest but durable growth and sustaining Korlym's cash-flow

profile. Our '30E Korlym is 17% above consensus.

VIEW We rate CORT a Buy. We believe there is favorable risk/reward on the upside from upcoming catalysts

including the ongoing Lifyorli PROC launch and early launch metrics. Our KOL interviews suggested

meaningful clinical enthusiasm and confidence in real-world applicability driven by OS benefit and

ease of use. Moreover, low market expectations and lingering issues with legacy hypercortisolism

programs have weighed down sentiment.

EVIDENCE (1) Review of published data from ROSELLA and Keytruda B-96, (2) Market model for Lifyorli in PROC,

(3) KOL checks with oncologists ,(4) Interviews with legal experts on CORT vs TEVA, (5) Market model

for Korlym in hypercortisolism.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Using our DCF framework, we believe the stock is pricing in ~$300m in peak sales for PROC, vs our

~$900m. We think the market likely believes that PROC is only an incremental growth driver.

However, given the positive data and approval in PROC, and the potential for expansions into other

oncology areas, we believe this could be an attractive entry point.

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Korlym in

'30EV/sales Lifyorli in PROC Hypercortisolism PROC revenue

Value drivers hypercortisolism

multiple peak revenue '30E ($m) '30E ($m)

peak

upside( $98) 7.5x 65% 45% $1,167m $852m