U.S. Apartment REITs "No Bend In The Trend?" Goldsmith

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Apartment REITs "No Bend In The Trend?" Goldsmith

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

U.S. Apartment REITs Equities

AmericasNo Bend In The Trend?

Real Estate

Michael Goldsmith

1Q'26 results showed positive signs, indicating that the rent recovery has Analyst

started michael.goldsmith@ubs.com

Big picture, we interpreted the tone across the Apartment REITs following 1Q'26 +1-212-713 2951

releases as cautiously optimistic. Results in the quarter met or modestly exceeded Ami Probandt

expectations, which we think takes the worst case 2026 SSRev scenarios off the table. Analyst

Still, it's early in the year with a volatile macro, a hesitant consumer, and lingering supply ami.probandt@ubs.com

pressure. Plus, 6 of the 8 REITs already expect blended rent growth to accelerate in 2H'26 +1-212-713 2078

over 1H'26 to hit the midpoint of their guidance (ESS & UDR are the exceptions). We Justin Haasbeek

remain more positive on the Coastal REITs. Both SF and NY continue to offset softness in Associate Analyst

other markets, and DC results may be better than anticipated as supply comes down and justin.haasbeek@ubs.com

the REITs lap government job cuts. +1-212-713 2014

Anna O'Neil

Our base case for 2026 assumes seasonality follows a more typical curve but for the Associate Analyst

anna.oneil@ubs.com

recovery to be choppy. The Apartment REIT consumer is in decent shape, but we don't

+1-212-713 4386

think there are enough renters in the market to achieve a strong inflection in pricing

power. There is a lack of visibility into trends materially changing from the last 2 years Connor Mitchell

when seasonality peaked early. Supply is set to moderate, but we foresee lingering lease- Associate Analyst

connor.mitchell@ubs.com

up pressure. At the same time, the macro remains uncertain.