Vivara "Post-Q Update & Markdown Monitor; Reiterate Buy" (Buy) Strano

Research evidence excerpt

Vivara "Post-Q Update & Markdown Monitor; Reiterate Buy" (Buy) Strano

tougher, while Life sales comps ease. We forecast 2Q26 gross revenue growth of 14%

(net revenue +12%), and for 2026 we model gross revenue growth of 14% (net rev.

+13%).

Gold cycle cushioning margin pressure

Vivara’s jewelry operation is currently benefiting from a uniquely favorable position

in the gold cycle: the company has effectively paused purchases of gold from

suppliers following previous inventory build-up, sourcing primarily from customer

buybacks/scrap inflows and melt-down of slow-moving finished goods, against

annual gold consumption of roughly 500kg. As a result, inventory costs remain

meaningfully below spot prices. According to management’s 1Q26 commentary, the

average cost of gold embedded in raw-material inventory increased 28% YoY, while

finished-goods inventory costs rose only 12% YoY — both well below the ~50% YoY

increase in spot gold prices. We believe Vivara’s long-dated gold inventory position

(more than 12 months of coverage) is a competitive advantage, whereas

competitors tend to reprice earlier in the cycle. This dynamic appears to have

supported: (i) stronger-than-expected jewelry sell-through, with the category

growing +18% YoY in 1Q26 (volume +10%, ticket +7%); and (ii) jewelry gross margin

expansion, offsetting silver-related pressure in Life. The increasing mix

contribution from Prata/Ouro and Prata Vivara — now 10% of sales versus 6.2% in

1Q25 — further reinforces this trend, helping capture more price-sensitive demand

while preserving markup.

Risk into 2027

While the gold cycle remains supportive in 2026, we see spot prices gradually

becoming a headwind into 2027. Management expects to resume purchases from