Rigaku Corporation (268A): 1Q results: magnitude of variance vs expectations may be taken negatively

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Rigaku Corporation (268A): 1Q results: magnitude of variance vs expectations may be taken negatively

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Rigaku Corporation (268A)

1Q results: magnitude of variance vs

expectations may be taken negatively

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 3,200 JPY | Price: 2,825 JPY

14 May 2026

Reiterate Buy and PO of ¥3,200 Equity

Shares may react negatively in the near term to the magnitude of the quarterly miss

versus market expectations. However, order momentum is on an uptrend. We expect the

X-ray metrology/inspection market—critical for advanced node scaling—to outpace the Key Changes

broader semiconductor equipment market, which is itself expanding. The recently (¥) Previous Current

announced partnership with Onto should strengthen the company’s competitiveness in 2026E Rev (m) 102,493.2 103,290.4

X-ray metrology/inspection. We make only minor tweaks to our estimates and reiterate 2027E Rev (m) 115,138.1 115,739.8

Buy with a PO of ¥3,200 (FY12/27 P/E 39x, previous 31x, in line with the average 2028E Rev (m) 126,522.5 127,144.1

valuation of global semiconductor process control peers). 2026E EPS 63.14 62.92

2027E EPS 81.29 81.30

1Q beat internal plan but materially missed the market 2026E EBITDA (m) 26,787.2 26,823.9

1Q OP was ¥0.6bn (YoY -78%), below our ¥2.0bn and VA ¥2.4bn. Drivers likely include (1) 2027E EBITDA (m) 33,229.3 33,196.1

weaker US academia demand and (2) higher costs from earthquake-related disruptions 2028E EBITDA (m) 37,361.5 37,353.7

in semiconductor process control. That said, management indicated 1Q exceeded 2026E DPS 19.07 19.09

internal expectations.

No change to FY12/26 guidance MikioResearchHirakawaAnalyst >>

BofAS Japan

The company left its FY12/26 guidance unchanged. Orders are strengthening across +81 3 6225 7989