SoftBank Group (SOFTBK): FY26/3 4Q First take: Credit neutral

Research evidence excerpt

SoftBank Group (SOFTBK): FY26/3 4Q First take: Credit neutral

e 4Q fair value is based on the pre-money

valuation for this funding round of $730bn. The $79.6bn fair value does not yet include:

(i) the additional $10bn investment executed on 1 April; and (ii) additional investments

to be executed in two tranches from July onward ($20bn in total). SBG signed a $40bn

bridge loan with major financial institutions in March 2026, securing funding for a total

of $38.5bn of investments comprising the additional OpenAI investment announced

($30bn) and previously announced investments ($8.5bn). The final maturity date of this

bridge loan is 25 March 2027.

Higher NAV expands funding flexibility

From a credit perspective, we view SBG’s key debate points as not only changes in the

value of its holdings, but also the funding mix for new investments, which ultimately

feeds back into LTV management. At the earnings briefing, SBG suggested it would

refinance the bridge loan by balancing monetization of holdings (margin loans,

derivatives transactions, asset sales, etc) and debt funding (bonds and loans, etc). We

have previously discussed the potential scope for financing backed by OpenAI shares

(margin loans), but Bloomberg reports the funding size could be reduced to $6bn from

an initial $10bn. If we take the news as a fact, SBG would still need to raise the

remaining $32.5bn. While this is a mechanical estimate, using current prices of the main

listed holdings and end-4Q net interest-bearing debt as the starting point, even if SBG

were to fund the remaining $32.5bn of new investments entirely with debt, our LTV

estimate would be 21%. While the funding mix for new investments in FY27/3 is still not

fixed, based on execution over FY26/3 we expect SBG to implement funding with LTV