European Morning Credit: Today in European Credit

Research evidence excerpt

European Morning Credit: Today in European Credit

now excluding senior non-preferred/senior holdco debt and instead referencing

senior preferred/senior opco risk. This is a definitional change that makes headline

ratings look higher, but in and of itself has no impact on debt ratings.

• There are a number of deposit rating upgrades, including for Greek banks, which

saw no changes to their debt ratings. Their liability structures are too thin to benefit

from any uplift from having ‘very large’ resolution buffers.

• Senior opco debt ratings were also upgraded for Bank of Ireland (to A+ from A) and

Permanent TSB (to A- from BBB+), albeit we see no material issuance out of those

entities. Similarly, for ASN Bank and KBC Bank, whose senior preferred (respectively

senior opco) debt ratings were upgraded to A+ from A (respectively AA- from A+).

Exhibit 3: Varying levels of protection for senior preferred debt, even within a same rating bucket

Subordinated MREL (CET1, AT1, subordinated debt, SNP/sr holdco) as a % of RWA (y-axis) vs senior preferred debt composite rating (x-axis)

39% UBS COVBS SWEDA NWIDE

SANUK 35% DANBNK

RABOBK ABNANV DB DNBNO SANTAN NWG SEB HSBC ERSTBK SHBASS 31% CMZB INTNED SOCGEN

NDAFH BPCEGP

ACAFP 27%

BFCM BBVASM BCPPL ICCREA

BNP CABKSM SABSM

CXGD UCGIM BAMIIM BPEIM MONTE 23%

CCBGBB BKTSM ISPIM ETEGA

MBKPW CRDEM TPEIR

19% CAZAR EUROB

ABANCA

CAJAMA

15%

3AA AA-4 A+5 A6 A-7 BBB+8 BBB9 BBB-10 BB+11

Source: BofA Global Research, banks as of end-2Q25, rating agencies. Main resolution group where banks have multiple-point-of-entry resolution strategies.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

(Luis Garrido)

ABN Amro (ABNANV): healthy 1Q

Healthy 1Q (10% RoE) helped by a positive cost surprise leading to a large beat. FY26

cost guidance improved. Volumes buoy NII, up 5% yoy.