Energy Transfer LP: The transition to a gas name is nigh – Reiterate Buy

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Energy Transfer LP: The transition to a gas name is nigh – Reiterate Buy

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Energy Transfer LP

The transition to a gas name is nigh –

Reiterate Buy

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 24.00 USD | Price: 20.00 USD

Broadly diversified across midstream asset types 12 May 2026

ET is diversified across types of midstream with ~$18.6B of 2026 consolidated EBITDA, Equity

split NGLs 25%, and midstream G&P, crude pipelines, gas pipelines, and ownership of

SUN (gas stations) and USAC (compression) around 20% each.

Key Changes

Contract rolls dragged on ET, but now known + improving (US$) Previous Current

We had originally estimated total contract rolloffs of ~$900mm from 2024-28 across Price Obj. 22.00 24.00

Lone Star NGL (-$400mm), Dakota Access (-$250mm), LPG exports (-$150mm), and the 2026E EPS 1.77 1.32

closure of the Waha differential (-$100mm). In our view, this sap on overall growth was 2027E EPS 1.86 1.39

the major reason ET lagged last year. However, we believe investors are now aware of 2028E EPS 1.86 1.47

the rolls and it is “priced in”, many have happened already, and some could improve 2026E EBITDA (m) 17,662.7 18,571.4

materially. Faster gas/NGL growth due to more gas egress and higher crude prices 2027E EBITDA (m) 18,297.4 18,071.6

should tighten up the NGL overbuild, and if the Enbridge MLO project goes forward, it 2028E EBITDA (m) 18,297.4 18,540.0

would tighten up Bakken crude egress, reducing Dakota Access recontracting risk. 2026E DPS 1.35 1.37

The future is gas Jean Ann Salisbury

Research Analyst

ET has several gas megaprojects in the medium term, including Desert Southwest BofAS

($5.6b) and Hugh Brinson ($2.7b), making up a growing share of spend, which investors +1 646 855-1470

jeanann.salisbury@bofa.com

should like.