Credit Derivatives Navigator: Geopolitics vs AI risks

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Credit Derivatives Navigator: Geopolitics vs AI risks

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Credit Derivatives Navigator

Geopolitics vs AI risks

Geopolitical risks replace AI – vulnerabilities persist 12 May 2026

Market focus has shifted decisively from AI‑driven disruption and private credit concerns Credit Derivatives

to geopolitics. Middle East risks have dominated headlines for a third consecutive United States

month, but underlying credit vulnerabilities have not faded. Equity markets remain Ioannis Angelakis

resilient, yet credit tells a more cautious story (look at hyperscalers), with spreads failing Credit Derivatives Strategist

to confirm the equity optimism. MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 0059

ioannis.angelakis@bofa.com

Sell volatility, own protection Yuri Seliger

As in previous stress episodes, implied volatility has peaked once, while CDS spreads Credit Strategist

BofAS

have remained under pressure for longer. Forward realised vols typically peak before

Neha Khoda

implieds, and implied vols decay steadily after the spike. This reinforces our preference Credit Strategist

to sell vol and hedge via CDS indices, where CDS index protection has proven more BofAS

reliable and persistent than volatility longs. We therefore still prefer a short bias in the Barnaby Martin

Credit Strategist

US credit-implied volatility market. MLI (UK)

CDX Financials: liquidity improving, hedging value rising MohitCredit StrategistAgarwalla

The newly launched CDX Financials index is gaining traction. We note that all the CDX MLI (UK)

Fins index constituents have seen trades in the past couple of weeks. Elevated positive

skew – index wider than intrinsics – has encouraged index selling against single‑name

protection buying. With CDX Financials now broadly aligned with BDC and private credit