Global Agribusiness: WASDE 26/27: soy prices rise on lower US stocks, further revisions likely supportive

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Global Agribusiness: WASDE 26/27: soy prices rise on lower US stocks, further revisions likely supportive

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Global Agribusiness

WASDE 26/27: soy prices rise on lower US

stocks, further revisions likely supportive

Industry Overview

Tighter US soy S&D on greater consumption and exports 12 May 2026

Soybean futures in Chicago (Nov/26) are up ~1.2% today (+14% year-to-date) after the Equity

USDA released its first WASDE report for the 26/27 crop season. US ending stocks came Global

in below expectations at 8.4mn tons (15% below consensus and down 9%YoY), on higher Agribusiness Machinery

than expected domestic consumption and exports, reflecting improving crushing margin Equity Research

and higher Chinese demand. Stocks-to-use ratio should then be at 6.9% in the end of the Isabella Simonato >>

season, down 110bps YoY and below the 10-year average of 9.0%. The USDA is ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Brazil)

forecasting farm-gate prices at US$11.4/bu, +US$1.0/bu YoY, which implies soy in +55 11 2188 4243

isabella.simonato@bofa.com

Chicago near US$12/bu. This is in line with our BofA Global Commodity team’s forecast.

Julia Zaniolo >>

Global soy stocks to drop 200bps YoY, back to average ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Brazil)

+55 11 2188 4367

The USDA points to a more balanced global soybean market in 26/27. Global inventories julia.zaniolo@bofa.com

came in 1.5% below expectations, with stocks-to-use ratio projected at 28.3%, down Matthew DeYoe, CFA

200bps YoY and in line with the 10-year average. Global production is expected to grow Research Analyst

BofAS

3.4% YoY, driven by higher output in Brazil and the US (186mn and 120mn tons, +1 646 855 5746

respectively). At the same time, demand remains solid, with domestic consumption and matthew.deyoe@bofa.com