Panama Watch: Trip notes – We stay in the constructive camp

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Panama Watch: Trip notes – We stay in the constructive camp

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Panama Watch

Trip notes – We stay in the constructive

camp

Key takeaways 11 May 2026 Corrected

GEM Economics• Key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of the mine. A related

LatAm | Panama

announcement is likely to happen in June.

• Incoming fiscal data is reassuring, and Panama Canal is buffering the impact of the Economics Research

Alexander Muller

Iran shock on the Panamanian economy. Andean(ex-Ven) Carib Economist

BofAS

• We maintain our Marketweight recommendation on Panama's external debt, as the +1 646 855 5750

market is already pricing an IG credit rating. alexander.muller@bofa.com

Pedro Diaz

Caribbean Economist

Summary of trip: positive catalysts and developments BofASpdiaz2@bofa.com

We travelled to Panama to meet with government officials, politicians, bankers, Sovereign Debt Strategy

multilaterals, the business community, and independent analysts. The balance of the Lucas Martin, CFA

Sovereign Debt FI Strategist

takeaways is positive. The key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of BofAS

the Cobre Panama mine, or at least an announcement which points in that direction. +1 646 855 1731 lucas.martin@bofa.com

Meanwhile, incoming fiscal data suggests the government is likely to meet the Fiscal Jane Brauer

Rule’s target for this year. And the strength of the Panama Canal, benefitting from trade Sovereign Debt FI Strategist

diversion, is buffering the impact of the Iran shock on the Panamanian economy. BofASjane.brauer@bofa.com

Positive risk event is the possible re-opening of the mine See Team Page for List of Analysts

The locals that we met emphasized a higher likelihood of the Cobre Panama copper mine