Panama Watch: Trip notes – We stay in the constructive camp

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Panama Watch: Trip notes – We stay in the constructive camp

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Panama Watch

Trip notes – We stay in the constructive

camp

Key takeaways 11 May 2026 Corrected

GEM Economics• Key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of the mine. A related

LatAm | Panama

announcement is likely to happen in June.

• Incoming fiscal data is reassuring, and Panama Canal is buffering the impact of the Economics Research

Alexander Muller

Iran shock on the Panamanian economy. Andean(ex-Ven) Carib Economist

BofAS

+1 646 855 5750

Summary of trip: positive catalysts and developments alexander.muller@bofa.com

Pedro Diaz

We travelled to Panama to meet with government officials, politicians, bankers, Caribbean Economist

multilaterals, the business community, and independent analysts. The balance of the BofAS pdiaz2@bofa.com

takeaways is positive. The key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of Sovereign Debt Strategy

the Cobre Panama mine, or at least an announcement which points in that direction. Lucas Martin, CFA

Meanwhile, incoming fiscal data suggests the government is likely to meet the Fiscal Sovereign Debt FI Strategist BofAS

Rule’s target for this year. And the strength of the Panama Canal, benefitting from trade +1 646 855 1731

diversion, is buffering the impact of the Iran shock on the Panamanian economy. lucas.martin@bofa.com

Jane Brauer

Positive risk event is the possible re-opening of the mine SovereignBofAS Debt FI Strategist

The locals that we met emphasized a higher likelihood of the Cobre Panama copper mine jane.brauer@bofa.com

getting reopened in the next six to twelve months. The mine accounts for 3% of value- See Team Page for List of Analysts

added in GDP and around 5% through indirect contributions. President Mulino has said