BofA on USA: Apr retail sales: steady as she goes

Research evidence excerpt

BofA on USA: Apr retail sales: steady as she goes

Exhibit 6: Discretionary spending as a share of total spending was Exhibit 7: Real control group retail sales would be little changed if our

down in Apr ’26 vs. Apr ’25 for the lower-income cohort control group retail sales & inflation forecasts prove correct

Share of discretionary spending in total spending per HH by income (%) Control group retail sales (3 month annualized % change)

80% 12%

Nominal Inflation adjustment Real Apr-19 Apr-25 Apr-26

9%

6%

75%

3%

0%

70%

-3%

-6%

65% -9%

Lower Middle Higher Jan-'23 Jul-'23 Jan-'24 Jul-'24 Jan-'25 Jul-'25 Jan-'26

Source: BAC internal data. Discretionary spending is total spending excluding gas, groceries and Source: BAC internal data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Haver Analytics. The

utilities. We exclude 2020-24 to simplify the chart. inflation adjustment uses a price index reported by Haver Analytics. It converts nominal spending

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH into real spending, so it is negative when inflation is positive and vice versa. BofA Global Research

projections for April are represented by the dotted line and clear boxes above. We assume nominal

control group retail sales are in line with our forecasts, and inflation is the same as it was in March.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 8: Tax refund stimulus has been roughly twice as large as the

impact of higher gas prices, so far

Cumulative increase in gas spending due to Iran war vs. y/y change in tax

refunds ($bn)

Increase in gas spending due to war

50 Y/y change in tax refunds

1-Mar 11-Mar 21-Mar 31-Mar 10-Apr 20-Apr 30-Apr

Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg, Treasury Department.

Note: to calculate the daily increase in gas spending because of the oil shock, we multiply last