European Oilfield Services: Offshore upcycle ascends: Saipem top pick

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European Oilfield Services: Offshore upcycle ascends: Saipem top pick

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European Oilfield Services

Offshore upcycle ascends: Saipem top pick

Price Objective Change

Key takeaways 12 May 2026

Equity• Higher commodities enhance our conviction for a prolonged offshore upcycle.

Europe

• New project tracker. We see subsea capex growing c.40% to 2030e. Oilfield Services

• Bullish margins. Saipem's EBITDA/FCF set grow c.50/100%. Buy at 4.6x EV/EBITDA.

Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 7109Still bullish OFS – Saipem still top pick – PO €5.50 matt.smith1@bofa.com

Higher commodity prices enhance our long-held conviction for a prolonged upcycle in

Christopher Kuplent >>

offshore and deepwater oil and gas investment. We see O&G boardrooms now even Research Analyst

more assured approving major capex projects; a virtue of their own expanding cashflows MLI (UK) christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

plus an added desire to diversify production bases. Industry reserves are at a low (Exhibit Cian Evans-Cowie >>

8). Reconstruction opportunities in the Middle East provide added optionality, especially Research Analyst

if OPEC (and recently exited members) look to accelerate production. Oil Services MLIcian.evans-cowie@bofa.com(UK)

remains our subsector preference > producers; reiterate Saipem as, still, our top pick. Saurabh Pant

Growth outlook: subsea capex +40% into 2030 BofASsaurabh.pant2@bofa.com

Our latest offshore project tracker points to approved projects, by value, doubling in

2027 versus the 2025 outturn (Exhibit 7); we see this enabling a c.40% increase in

subsea capex spend to 2030. This does not depend, or even imply, global O&G capex is O&G: oil and gas

set to soar. Offshore capex is <40% of the global pie and deepwater specifically, which