ADNOC Drilling: Growth to resume from 2027E

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ADNOC Drilling: Growth to resume from 2027E

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ADNOC Drilling

Growth to resume from 2027E

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 6.90 AED | Price: 6.28 AED

All eyes on growth from higher UAE production capacity 12 May 2026

ADNOC Drilling delivered another inline quarter and reiterated its 2026E guidance Equity

despite ongoing regional conflict. However, the earnings call was dominated by

questions around the company’s medium‑term growth outlook, particularly if UAE

Key Changesincreases its oil production capacity to 6mb/d. While management refrained from

providing explicit targets, we believe such a scenario is likely to be incorporated into (US$) Previous Current

2027–31 business plan. In parallel, the second phase of the unconventional is also likely Price Obj. AED6.80 AED6.90

to be announced in the coming months, given that progress on Phase 1 is ahead of 2027E EPS 0.10 0.11

schedule and key project risks have largely been de‑risked. We reiterate our Buy rating

with a new price objective of AED6.90 per share, from prior AED 6.80 (see inside for Abhishek Kumar >>

Research Analyst

details on our slight estimate increases). No change to our DCF assumptions and target Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

EV/EBITDA multiple. +971 4 425 8227 abhishek.kumar29@bofa.com

Sashank Lanka >>Scenario analysis suggests a potential 20% EBITDA uplift

Our scenario analysis scenario assuming 30 incremental rigs for ADNOC Drilling along Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

with 60-70% share of the OFS (oil field services) work, on 1mb/d incremental production +971 4 425 8231 sashank.lanka@bofa.com

over 5-7 years, adds between 18-22% to 2026E EBITDA (see the report: EEMEA Oil &

Gas: UAE exiting OPEC: ADNOC Drilling + L&S beneficiaries 29 April 2026). We have not