Global Luxury Goods Never a dull moment in luxury

Research evidence excerpt

Global Luxury Goods Never a dull moment in luxury

12 May 2026

Global Luxury Goods EquitiesGlobal Luxury Goods

Never a dull moment in luxury Global

◆ Geopolitical tensions have been dampening travel flows into Anne-Laure Bismuth*

Europe, putting pressure on luxury demand Global Consumer Analyst HSBC Bank plc

annelaure.bismuth@hsbcib.com

◆ Ahead of our Luxury conference in Paris, we highlight key +44 20 7991 6587

debates by companies that will shape the conversation Akshay Gupta*, CFA

Global Luxury & Consumer Analyst

◆ Ratings unchanged in our luxury coverage; cut TPs for Hermès, Theakshay.gupta@hsbc.com.hkHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

LVMH, Moncler, Prada on lower earnings estimates; increase +852 2974 2980

TP on Swatch (Hold) on slightly higher estimates VigneshAssociateGopalakrishnan*

Bangalore

Tourism in Europe dampened by geopolitical tensions, impacting luxury demand.

In our In Luxe we trust report (9 March 2026), we flagged that the Middle East only * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

accounted for 5% of our luxury sales coverage. However, we underestimated the not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

broader impact of geopolitical tensions on tourism flows to Europe, as both Middle

Eastern and Asian tourists became more reluctant to travel, on top of weaker

American tourism flows to Europe. This contributed to softer organic sales in Q1,

averaging +4.7% vs +5% in Q4. The sharp Middle East decline in March penalised

our luxury coverage and reduced the average organic sales growth rate by c1% in

Q1. Europe weakened further on softer tourism inflows, while China continued to

stabilise if not slightly improving. The US was the only clear Q1 bright spot, with sales