Türkiye Inflation forecast revisions

Research evidence excerpt

Türkiye Inflation forecast revisions

12 May 2026

Türkiye EconomicsCEEMEA

Inflation forecast revisions

◆ CBRT will publish its quarterly inflation report on 14 May, and

Melis Metiner

we expect the end-year inflation forecast to be revised up Economist, CEEMEA

HSBC Bank plc

◆ We also lift our end-2026 inflation forecast to 26.8% from melismetiner@hsbcib.com

+44 20 3359 2636

23% y-o-y

◆ We continue to see the CBRT on hold in the near term

The Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) will publish its Q2 inflation report on 14 May.

The bank recently adopted a new communication strategy, setting out both interim

inflation targets (on the path to sustainably meeting the 5% target) and year-end

inflation forecasts. The interim inflation targets for end-2026, 2027, and 2028 are

16%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. The bank’s end-2026 inflation forecast range

currently stands at 15-21% (mid-point 18%), while the end-2027 inflation forecast is

6-12% (mid-point 9%).

When these forecasts were published in mid-February, authorities assumed an

average oil price of USD61/b for 2026, and food inflation moderating from 28% at the

end of 2025 to 19% by the end of 2026. We think both of these assumptions could

see significant revisions, leading to a higher end-2026 inflation forecast. Other

underlying assumptions on the foreign demand outlook and import prices might also

see changes. The interim target could also be revised up, but this is less likely.

Fuel price subsidies mean that the direct impact of higher energy prices will be

relatively modest (page 2 for details), and the CBRT, like many other central banks,

will have to make a judgement call on the magnitude and the longevity of indirect

inflation effects. Recent experience suggests the CBRT may prefer publishing