EV Global Roadmap High oil price provides tailwind to adoption, but not a spike

Research evidence excerpt

EV Global Roadmap High oil price provides tailwind to adoption, but not a spike

EV Global Roadmap EquitiesAutomobiles

High oil price provides tailwind to adoption, but not a spike

◆ BEVs enjoy a strong start to 2026 in Europe, although an “energy crisis” spike is not yet apparent. We raise near-term EV mix

forecasts by up to 1-1.5ppt; the US on the other hand remains weak; China EV growth hit by lower government support.

Michael Tyndall*, CFA

◆ We think (more) favourable economics for EVs on the back of higher pump prices will be supportive for adoption, but not the Senior Global Autos Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

watershed that some suggest. Purchase decisions are multi-faceted. Energy shortages, however, could well drive a surge. michael.tyndall@hsbc.com

+44 20 3359 6301

◆ The longer the Middle East conflict prevails and the pace at which “normal” energy supply resumes will determine how much of Pushkar Tendolkar*

Global Autos Analyst

a boost EV demand sees as a result. Higher consumer interest in EVs might mean perceptions see a more permanent uplift. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)

Private Limited

pushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in

High fuel prices help EVs, but energy security is a bigger catalyst. unchanged; there is still a risk of OEMs incurring fines, which means the push +91 80 4555 2752

Higher pump prices (up 15-28% YTD in the UK and closer to 60% in the US) toward EVs is likely to remain unchanged. Alice Martin*

are supportive to the economics of EVs, but we think fuel cost was never US: No signs of change in government support for BEVs. In 2025, there HSBC Bank plc

really an impediment to adoption (Germany post the Ukraine gas crisis might was a clear policy shift away from BEVs in the US – end of EV credits, alice.martin@hsbc.com +44 20 7992 0175