Raia Drogasil (RADL3 BZ) Buy: Structural growth continues

Research evidence excerpt

Raia Drogasil (RADL3 BZ) Buy: Structural growth continues

026. Strip that out, along with the medicine price

30.00

adjustment, and we think that sales in Raia’s B&M estate were +7.7% including the

benefit of c10% new stores and price increases (CMED is 3.1%). Management 20.50

seems to think risks such as tighter labour laws (5-day and 40-hour working week) 11.00

05/25 11/25 05/26

are manageable. The main imponderable is GLP1s, which are steadily rolling out as

Target price: 28.00 High: 27.00 Low: 13.10 Current: 20.97

generics. Management is somewhat dismissive of the risks here. Lower-price

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

generics could hit SSS. However, the company maintains that it has an opportunity to

take share from illegal suppliers, which could help offset this. The company believes

Joe Thomas*

that the sector could eventually get c20% of its revenues from GLP-1s. We think Raia Senior Analyst, Head of Equity Research Mexico

currently generates around half of this. HSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC

joe.thomas@hsbc.com.mx

Guidance unchanged. Forecasts fall on 4Bio: The only guidance that Raia gives is +52 55 8551 5172

on the number of store openings. This is unchanged at 330-350. The other changes Guilherme Domingues*

to our estimates are for the disposal of 4Bio. Aside from this, our underlying Analyst, US Consumer Staples

Banco HSBC S.A.

assumptions are largely unchanged. guilherme.domingues@hsbc.com

+55 11 2802 2474

Maintain Buy but cut TP to BRL28 from BRL29: Raia looks well positioned to us. It

Saket .*

is expanding its footprint and its market share in every Brazilian region. Its 33% Associate

Bangalore

market share in Sao Paulo – which is still growing – indicates that there remains

plenty of runway for growth.