ROCHE : Diagnostic Day feedback; Innovation coming sooner than mid-term targets

Research evidence excerpt

ROCHE : Diagnostic Day feedback; Innovation coming sooner than mid-term targets

EQUITIES

PHARMACEUTICALS

ROCHE NEUTRALPRICE* CHF319.4  TARGET PRICE CHF305 (DOWNSIDE 5%)

ROCHE ADR NEUTRALPRICE* USD51.4  TARGET PRICE USD48 (DOWNSIDE 7%)

FLASH NOTE

Diagnostic Day feedback; Innovation coming sooner than mid-term targets

12 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 18:24* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Peter Verdult, CFA BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8683 peter.verdult@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Management were out in force to highlight significant upcoming Diagnostic launches across next-gen sequencing, mass

spectrometry, and continuous glucose monitoring device upgrades. The recent PathAI acquisition to accelerate efforts

to make disease pathology predictive/prognostic was promoted enthusiastically. Mid-term guidance for Diagnostics

remains MSD-HSD revenue growth with EBIT margin expansion from product mix and SG&A leverage. The outlook for

2026/27 is more muted given China reform impacts on volumes/prices. We remain Neutral with a CHF305 PT.

BNPP View:

While highly informative we do not anticipate the Diagnostics Day to drive major changes to consensus forecasts. 2026-

31e BNPP/consensus Diagnostics sales CAGR already 6% with an EBIT CAGR of 10/11% respectively. With respect

to Pharma, Roche is now expecting the base business (including fenebrutinib, giredestrant and Gazyva) to enjoy

revenue growth “through 2030” (previously 2028 when Ocrevus faces LOE) and for EBIT margins to remain “at least

stable”. We note a muted share price reaction, given this has been well telegraphed for a number of months. We

anticipate the peak sales opportunity for fenebrutinib/giredestrant/obesity will continue to be debated through 2026, on