SIEMENS ENERGY : 2Q'25 results: prelims confirmed, buyback raised; u/s pressure to 28 targets

Research evidence excerpt

SIEMENS ENERGY : 2Q'25 results: prelims confirmed, buyback raised; u/s pressure to 28 targets

Investment case, valuation and risks

Siemens Energy (Outperform, Target Price EUR210)

Investment case

Siemens Energy ticks many energy transition boxes with coal/oil to gas shift (global #2)

and steady grid expansion and enforcement (exGP business: #1-3 in all activities).

Warranty cases in the onshore business of Siemens Gamesa look under control, and

boundary conditions for the wind sector have structurally improved regarding pricing,

T&Cs and political support (SGRE #1 in offshore wind). End market momentum in the

former Gas & Power business (exGP) suggests that the beat-and-raise might well

continue, which - even after the strong share price performance since 2024 - does not

look adequately priced.

Valuation methodology

We value the exGP segments - GS, GT and TI - at 19x / 17x / 12x EV/EBITA 2029e to

adequately reflect the multi-year growth and margin expansion opportunity. For SGRE,

we assign a target EV/sales multiple of 0.5x to our 2029 revenue forecast to strike a

balance between the mid- to long-term opportunity and the still remaining short-term

uncertainties related to component failures in onshore and headwinds from the legacy

offshore backlog.

Risks

To the upside:

Tailwinds from both volume and price hikes at exGP as well as better T&Cs at SGRE

might exceed expectations, while continued good demand could result in a continuation

of strong FCF generation as seen since the spin-off, at least in the exGP business. FCF

might further benefit from favourable net pricing and customers' willingness to secure

production slots, especially at GS. Faster-than-expected execution of the backlog and a

swift pick-up in wind order activity.