Sanwa Holdings: F3/26 4Q Results: Change in DOE Policy Positive, But No Surprises in Results or Guidance; Weak US Demand Persists

Research evidence excerpt

Sanwa Holdings: F3/26 4Q Results: Change in DOE Policy Positive, But No Surprises in Results or Guidance; Weak US Demand Persists

Update

May 14, 2026 10:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MSanwa Holdings (5929) | Japan Ryo Yagi

Equity Analyst

F3/26 4Q Results: Change in Ryo.Yagi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8938

Sanwa Holdings (5929.T, 5929 JP)

Housing Fixtures | JapanDOE Policy Positive, But No

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥4,100Surprises in Results or Shr price, close (May 14, 2026) ¥3,646

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥770.8

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥2.6Guidance; Weak US Demand

Persists

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged In-line Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

F3/26 OP was ¥79.1bn (down 1.8% YoY), in line with consensus of ¥79.5bn and

our estimate of ¥78.5bn.

F3/27 company OP forecast is ¥81.0bn, below consensus of ¥84.3bn and our

estimate of ¥82.5bn.

F3/27 dividend guidance is ¥146 (¥130 in the previous year), and dividend policy

changed to DOE 10% (previously 8%). The company announced a ¥10bn share

buyback.

Demand in the Americas remains subdued across both residential and non-

residential segments (especially residential).

Domestic demand remains solid. F3/26 order intake was ¥305bn (up 3.7% YoY),

and the F3/27 plan is ¥322.2bn (up 5.6%).

Implications for the share price: Neutral; we view the DOE policy change positively,

but both actuals and guidance contained no surprises. Demand in the Americas,

which we have been watching closely, remains sluggish in both residential and non-

residential. Given current demand trends there, we expect it will remain difficult to