Nexon: 1Q26 a beat but 2Q guidance materially below expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Nexon: 1Q26 a beat but 2Q guidance materially below expectations

Update

May 14, 2026 09:59 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+MNexon (3659) | Japan Seyon Park

Equity Analyst

1Q26 a beat but 2Q guidance Seyon.Park@morganstanley.comSohyun Park +82 2 399-4936

Sohyun.Park@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4872

materially below expectations

Nexon (3659.T, 3659 JT)

Japan Digital Entertainment | Japan

Reaction to earnings

Stock Rating Overweight

Weakens our thesis In-line Modest revision lower Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target ¥3,800

consensus EPS Shr price, close (May 14, 2026) ¥2,520

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,994.0

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥6.4

Key Takeaways

OP of ¥58bn was 7% ahead of our estimate despite higher refunds from

MapleStory: Idle RPG as China revenues came in better and helped by good cost

control

2Q26 guidance of ¥21bn in OP (midpoint) falls materially short of our estimate of

¥46bn with management citing likely trough quarter for the year

ARC Raiders has surpassed 16 million copies and is planning a major content

update which includes a premium reward pass for October

Management announced a ¥30bn share buyback scheduled from May 15 to July

31, 2026

Decrease in high-margin China business blamed for the weak OP guide: Company

is citing that monetization initiatives tied to DNF Online's April updates have fallen

below expectations. The pace of ARC Raiders sell through also appears to have

decelerated visibly, as guidance for North America/Europe comes meaningfully

lower than our forecasts. Management is guiding for a recovery in the second half