Global Macro Commentary: May 14: GBP Falls on Political Uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: May 14: GBP Falls on Political Uncertainty

Update

May 14, 2026 10:59 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | Global Molly Nickolin

Strategist

May 14: GBP Falls on Political Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Uncertainty Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

US retail sales held up and import prices surprised higher; UK

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

politics pressured GBP; Trump-Xi headlines steadied risk; S&P Gek Teng Khoo

500 +0.8%; GBP/USD -0.9%; Brent +1.0%; DXY at 98.88 StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

(+0.4%); US 10y at 4.48 (+1.3bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoResilient US activity and renewed energy-price sensitivity kept front-end yields

under pressure, while political risk and tech-led equity strength drove a stronger Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

USD and mixed global rates.

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune

Developed Markets

Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

• Treasuries twist-flattened as stronger import prices and steady retail

sales reinforced the higher-for-longer narrative, even as dip-buying Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Maria Chiara Russo

supported the long end. The front end led the selloff while the 30y finished Strategist

slightly richer (2y: +3.8bp; 10y: +1.3bp; 30y: -0.7bp). April retail sales rose Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

0.5% m/m, while import prices rose 1.9% m/m, above expectations and

consistent with renewed goods-inflation pressure tied to energy and

imported inputs. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rose to 3.99%, while Fed