Commodity Matters: Tighter Copper Scrap Market in China?

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Matters: Tighter Copper Scrap Market in China?

Idea

May 14, 2026 04:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCommodity Matters | Europe Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Tighter Copper Scrap Market in Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +44 20 7677-6937

Rachel L Zhang

Equity AnalystChina? Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1520

China's output of refined copper and semi-finished products has Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ben Kelson

Research Associategrown more reliant on scrap, but availability is being limited by

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

domestic policy while global scrap trade is changing too. This

Martijn Rats, CFA

brings upside risks to copper prices, all else equal. Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618

Key Takeaways

Exhibit 1 : Increased scrap usage at China's

Domestic scrap supply in China has been disrupted by full implementation of the copper smelters has supported continued

reverse invoicing policy, while traditional global scrap flows shift too. growth in output. Since 2022, smelter output

Scrap-based semi-fabricators are lowering operating rates, while some may turn has diverged from the volume of concentrate

to refined copper feedstock. available in China, highlighting further reliance

on scrap as a feedstock

Smelter output could also be affected, having used more scrap to supplement

tight concentrate supply in recent years. 12 ChineseChinaCoppercopper inSmelterconcentrateProductionimports vs. ConcentrateDomesticProductioncopper&inImportsconcentrate(Mt)production

10 China smelter production

Some offset may come from demand impacts from higher copper prices, while