UK Housing Pulse May Edition - Uncertain outlook amid weakening indicators

Research evidence excerpt

UK Housing Pulse May Edition - Uncertain outlook amid weakening indicators

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

15 May 2026

UK Housing Pulse

May Edition - Uncertain outlook amid weakening

indicators

We publish the May edition of the UK Housing Pulse, a monthly report in European Building & Construction

collaboration with the European Banks and Internet Research teams. and Infrastructure

Zaim Beekawa AC

What’s inside? We track key indicators for the sector and assess (i) House prices (44-20) 7134-4175

and related forward indicators; (ii) Mortgage rates and affordability; (iii) zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

Housing supply and transactions; as well as (iv) Build cost inflation. Elodie Rall AC

(44-20) 7134-5911

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

AC• The key takeaways in our May edition are: (i) House price trends are positive Jamie Smallbone

with Nationwide prices up 0.4% m/m and Rightmove prices up 0.8%; (ii) UK (44-20) 3493-7015

Housing Transactions were down 41% y/y in March (reflecting unfavorable jamie.smallbone@jpmorgan.com

base effects) and Mortgage Approvals were down 1% y/y; (iii) Mortgage rates European Banks

increased by c.65bps in April. AC Sheel Shah, CFA

• Ongoing uncertainty clouds the outlook. The picture is similar to that we (44-20) 7134-8455

called out in our last pulse, with the RICS survey’s forward indicators sheel.shah@jpmorgan.com

remaining weak in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and the risks now Kian Abouhossein AC

accentuated by recent domestic political developments. The last month has (44-20) 7134-4575

seen profit warnings from Taylor Wimpey, Crest Nicholson and Vistry but a kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

strong print across the board from Persimmon, reinforcing our confidence in the Venkat Madasu AC