J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 15 May 26 Deye - A; Transition Talks; JPM Asia Insurance Forum Highlights; China banks; China Economics; Alibaba Group (BABA US & 9988 HK)

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 15 May 26 Deye - A; Transition Talks; JPM Asia Insurance Forum Highlights; China banks; China Economics; Alibaba Group (BABA US & 9988 HK)

Asia Pacific Equity Research AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

aprr.publications@jpmorgan.com

dynamics in China and India under open architecture, and equity market risk budgeting for Chinese

insurers.Mid-year equity top picks: China Life-H, Ping An-H, KGI, MaxF, SBI Life, Samsung Life, and Thai

Life. Among fixed income investors, upgraded solvency frameworks are a focus, given the implications for

fundamentals and new bond issuance; overall, the forum reinforced our positive view on Hong Kong credits.

China banks, China (Katherine Lei)

April credit data: A notable miss with record retail and corporate loan contraction; prefer Big 4 for

defensiveness

April credit data was significantly weaker than expected, with both TSF and new RMB loans falling well

below BBG consensus and JPMe. TSF came in at Rmb620bn, roughly half of both BBGe of Rmb1.25tn and

JPMe of Rmb1.24tn, while new RMB loans contracted by Rmb10bn against BBGe of Rmb300bn and JPMe

of Rmb271bn. We noted that retail loan (-787bn) and corporate loan (-870bn) monthly contraction both were

the sharpest in recorded history, and discounted bills surging to fill the gap - a negative signal for blended

loan yields and NIM in April. The weakness in April credit creation is partly due to seasonality, but the

magnitude exceeds our expectation. The weak credit data in April is in contrast to macro data showing

strong exports (link) and marginal improvement in the housing market (link). We recommend more

defensive positioning and prefer the Big 4 banks which have a stronger loan pipeline and reported

sequential NIM rebound in 1Q.