Pembina Pipeline Corp 1Q in Review; Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Pembina Pipeline Corp 1Q in Review; Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 May 2026

Pembina Pipeline Corp Neutral

PPL.TO, PPL CN

1Q in Review; Model Update Price (13 May 26):C$64.71

▲Price Target (Dec-26):C$67.00

Prior (Dec-26):C$64.00

Alongside the 1Q26 beat on Transmission and Marketing outperformance, PPL

raised full-year guidance +$175mm to $4.35–4.55bn ($4.45/4.43bn JPMe/Street Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, andmedian) on stronger crude oil marketing and wider frac spreads. On the call,

Nuclear

management confirmed the Greenlight FID remains on track for end of 2Q26, with

workstreams around lump-sum EPC, commercial agreements, and project Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC

financing all converging. Management also flagged future phase synergies and (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

potential margin improvement by moving away from lump-sum contracting over

Vrathan Reddy

time. On Peace Pipeline opportunities, management highlighted 110mbpd of

(1-212) 622-4692

renewed and incremental contracts in 2026 to date, with the Fox Creek-to-Namao, vrathan.reddy@jpmchase.com

Taylor-to-Gordondale, and Birch-to-Taylor expansions sequentially Eli Jossen, CFA

debottlenecking the corridor to accommodate growing NEBC liquids. Cedar LNG (1-212) 622-4113

surpassed 50% vessel completion with 2026 representing peak capex. On the eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

overall commodity outlook, with ~90% frac spread hedging in 2Q–3Q, we see Francina Kolluri

near-term earnings upside locked in, though 4Q exposure at ~40% leaves (1-212) 270-5796

performance optionality. Looking ahead, commentary on new growth projects and francina.kolluri@jpmchase.com

Greenlight commercialization remain top of mind. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Prev Cur Δ