Xero Limited FY26 result; AI fears persist despite strong result & guide

Research evidence excerpt

Xero Limited FY26 result; AI fears persist despite strong result & guide

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026

Xero Limited Overweight

XRO.AX, XRO AU

FY26 result: AI fears persist despite strong result & Price (14 May 26):A$73.68

guide Price Target (Mar-27):A$150.00

XRO’s FY26 result was strong across the board, delivering a strong subs print and Australia

FY27 guidance ahead of expectations. However, the result and guide was not enough

Technology, Media &

to allay fears around AI, and was not helped by the announcement of Anthropic’s Telecommunications

‘Claude for Small Business’. XRO is making clear progress on AI product AC Bob Chen

development, which we believe over time will shift the narrative towards seeing XRO

(61-2) 9003-8611

as an AI beneficiary in a high-barrier industry. The proof will be in monetisation, bob.chen@jpmorgan.com

which we expect to be delivered through FY27. In the interim, mgmt have provided Benjamin Jones

a glidepath to free cashflow margin expansion, which sees the stock trade at a mid- (61-2) 9003-8627

teens FY28 FCF multiple. Maintain OW. benjamin.s.jones@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• FY27 guidance provides a path to FY28 targets. FY27 guidance on revenue

($3,620-3,730m) and adj. EBITDA ($860-920m) was a beat to JPMe (+1%)

and BBG Consensus (+3%) and reflects the progress towards the company’s Key Changes (FYE Mar)

FY28 targets (2x FY25 revenue, greater than Rule of 40). From here, we Prev Cur Δ

believe the revenue target is undemanding, implying ~15% FY28 revenue Adj. EPS - 28E (NZ$) 2.39 2.48 3.8%

growth (JPMe 18%). Pro-forma free cash margin (incl. Melio full-year impact)

Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Mar)

was 13% which provides a clear pathway to >20% free-cash margins as Melio

Adj. EPS (NZ$)