Calbee (2229) 4Q results: Unlikely to fully absorb cost growth in FY2026 　

Research evidence excerpt

Calbee (2229) 4Q results: Unlikely to fully absorb cost growth in FY2026

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 May 2026

Calbee (2229) Underweight

2229.T, 2229 JP

4Q results: Unlikely to fully absorb cost growth in Price (14 May 26):¥2,901

FY2026 Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,600

Neutral: FY2026 operating profit guidance is ¥26.2 billion, flat YoY, below our Japan Equity Research

estimate of ¥27.2 billion and the Bloomberg consensus estimate of ¥28.5 billion.

Food, Beverage, and Tobacco

Management expects an end to supply constraints caused by poor potato harvests

to result in domestic sales growth, but for rising costs due to the worsening Middle Satoshi Fujiwara AC

East situation to weigh on FY2026 earnings. Calbee is implementing additional (81-3) 6736-8652

satoshi.fujiwara@jpmorgan.com

price increases to offset rising costs, but we believe it may be unable to fully absorb

Hideto Takahashi

these increases both in Japan and overseas in FY2026. (81-3) 6736-8638

• FY2025 operating profit fell 10% YoY to ¥26.2 billion (Bloomberg consensus: hideto.takahashi@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

¥25.7 billion), weighed down by higher depreciation costs related to the

Setouchi Hiroshima Plant through 3Q. The beat versus our forecast of ¥25.4

billion was primarily due to significant reductions in rebates following a poor

potato harvest in Hokkaido and was not a particular surprise. Overseas

operating profit rose ¥1.3 billion YoY to ¥1.1 billion in 4Q, driven by

productivity improvements in the UK and other factors. For the full year,

overseas operating profit rose ¥1.1 billion YoY to ¥4.1 billion, above guidance

of ¥3.6 billion.

• For FY2026, management expects the worsening Middle East situation to