PZU Softer start to the year - 1Q26 first take

Research evidence excerpt

PZU Softer start to the year - 1Q26 first take

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

14 May 2026

PZU Neutral

PZU.WA, PZU PW

Softer start to the year - 1Q26 first take Price (13 May 26):zl63.74

Price Target (Dec-27):zl79.00

Our Take: PZU’ Q1 attributable profit of PLN 1.362bn is 8% above the company CEEMEA Financials

ACcompiled consensus, yet the result is down 23% YoY and down 8% QoQ. We are Baron Nkomo

cautious about annualising Q1 profits but this result suggests that PZU is tracking (27-11) 507-0385

c.15% below the FY26 Bloomberg consensus and 20% below JPMe. The adjusted baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

ROE of 15.7% is lower versus 22.4% in 1Q25, and is also tracking below the FY26 J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

Bloomberg consensus of 17% (JPMe 19%). By segment, Non-life Poland had Pooja Ruia

broadly flat insurance revenue YoY and a lower operating result (-19% YoY) with (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

a higher combined ratio of 86.8% (vs 82.5% in 1Q5). Life insurance Poland grew J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

insurance revenue +8% with a higher operating result +12.5% and a profit margin

of 25% (vs 24% in 1Q25%). The banks (Alior + Pekao) contributed PLN 375m of

profit (down 24% YoY). Results in Ukraine & Baltic States weakened with

operating result down -40% YoY. Yesterday, the management board recommended

a dividend of PLN4.8, up 7% YoY and yielding 7.6% on the current share price.

Overall, we view this update as light for PZU given the overall softer operating

performance despite earnings exceeding consensus expectations.

• Noteworthy Areas: The quarter’s operating mix reflects motor insurance

pressure (claims inflation and competitive pricing), partly offset by non-motor

growth and life momentum. In non-life, PZU highlight cost/competitive