Global Aerospace: Data Tracker & Forecast Guide

Research evidence excerpt

Global Aerospace: Data Tracker & Forecast Guide

Equity Research

13 May 2026

Global Aerospace

Data Tracker & Forecast Guide

Industry UpdateQ1 data show the Middle East conflict/ higher jet fuel prices

have not yet fed through to aftermarket performance or

customer behaviour. If fuel costs remain elevated for longer, UK Capital Goods NEUTRAL

airlines may increasingly prioritise cash preservation, but this European Aerospace & Defence

has not materialised so far. NEUTRAL

European & UK Aerospace & Defence

Milene KernerQ1 data show stress where you would expect it: Middle East traffic and parking, but resilience

+33 (0)1 4458 4002

where it matters for earnings: engine aftermarket growth outperformed expectations, parking

milene.kerner@barclays.com

outside the Middle East declined, deferrals remained nil and order intake hit a post-2013 Q1 BBI, Paris

high. The disconnect between regional disruption and global demand underpins near-term

Afonso Osorio, CFAvisibility and frames the key upside/downside debate for H2 and 2027.

+44 (0)20 3134 7016

afonso.osorio@barclays.comKey Q1 themes from the data

Barclays, UK

• Middle East exposure: Air traffic disruption was severe in March, but the impact remained Sambhav Kochar

regional, with no evidence of spill-over into global utilisation, airline behaviour or OEM +91 (0)22 6175 2559

demand. sambhav.kochar@barclays.com

• Aftermarket resilience: Civil aftermarket revenues grew +18% YoY in Q1, driven by engine

UK Capital Goods aftermarket up +27.8% YoY. On legacy engine platforms, the continued shortage of spare

Jonathan Hurn, CFA engines and limited replacement options mean airlines have not pulled back on aftermarket

+44 (0)20 3134 0468

demand, despite higher fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty. jonathan.hurn@barclays.com