Autodesk Inc.: 1Q Billings Reflect Potential Disruption; We Are Lower than 2Q Street Billings; See Unchanged FY27 on Mixed Reseller Results

Research evidence excerpt

Autodesk Inc.: 1Q Billings Reflect Potential Disruption; We Are Lower than 2Q Street Billings; See Unchanged FY27 on Mixed Reseller Results

Equity Research

U.S. Software

13 May 2026

Autodesk Inc.

1Q Billings Reflect Potential

Disruption; We Are Lower than 2Q Earnings Preview

ADSK OVERWEIGHTStreet Billings; See Unchanged

Unchanged

U.S. Software POSITIVEFY27 on Mixed Reseller Results

ADSK reports 5/28 (AH), and we model 5-6% y/y growth in 1Q Price Target USD 300.00

billings as we reflect the recent ~7% RIF and new channel lowered -5% from USD 315.00

Price (11-May-26) USD 236.07

comp changes. We expect an unchanged FY guide based off of Potential Upside/Downside +27.1%

mixed reseller results. More on the setup, intraquarter Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

datapoints, and Anthropic announcement below... Market Cap (USD mn) 49845

Shares Outstanding (mn) 211.15

Four key points into Autodesk's 1Q: (1) we model 5-6% y/y growth in 1Q billings as we believe Free Float (%) 99.73

that 1H could feel disruption from the January RIF and new channel comp changes, while we 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.7

model 16% y/y growth in 1Q revenue which includes some model shift tailwinds that should Dividend Yield (%) N/A

dissipate throughout FY27; (2) the read-throughs we follow for Autodesk were mixed this quarter Return on Equity TTM (%) 39.68

with web traffic down y/y, but up q/q – European reseller Addnode reported a 12% y/y CC Current BVPS (USD) 14.23

decline in its design management business, while Mensch und Maschine was more stable, and Source: Bloomberg

US PMI and ABI readings were solid; (3) we expect the FY27 guide to be unchanged because

there is less conservatism in the FY27 guide than in FY26 – and while ADSK's diverse business Price Performance Exchange-Nasdaq