U.S. Consumer Finance: Takeaways from 1Q26 Mortgage Insurance Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Consumer Finance: Takeaways from 1Q26 Mortgage Insurance Earnings

Equity Research

13 May 2026

U.S. Consumer Finance

Takeaways from 1Q26 Mortgage

Insurance Earnings

MIs beat EPS estimates in 1Q, driven by larger reserve U.S. Consumer Finance

releases and lower opex. That said, credit missed our NEUTRAL

expectations modestly, as new notices accelerated y/y and U.S. Consumer Finance

Terry Ma, CFA

cures to new defaults declined y/y. +1 212 526 7965

terry.ma@barclays.com

BCI, US

Quick Takeaways Jack+1 212Margolius526 9132

1. Earnings Results: All four companies in our MI coverage beat our EPS estimates by jack.margolius@barclays.com

3%-7%. The beats were mostly driven by larger than expected reserve releases ($118MM vs.

our cumulative estimate of $79MM) along with better-than-expected MI opex (-7.7% on Cordelia R Deng

average). +1 212 526 7625

cordeliar.deng@barclays.com

2. Credit Results: Credit results were modestly worse than our expectations with higher than BCI, US

expected DQ rates (+5.4bps average). Notably, all four MIs saw new notices accelerate on a

y/y basis at +10.5% on average (vs. 2.0% last quarter), and cure/new notices decline y/y

(93.6% vs. 102.0%)

3. Capital Returns: There was more share buyback activity in 1Q vs. the previous two quarters,

largely due to RDN resuming share buybacks after a two-quarter pause following its

acquisition of Inigo. RDN repurchased $50MM in the quarter and an additional $65MM in

April. RDN management expects $200MM-$250MM of excess capital (on a FY basis) to be

available for opportunistic share repurchases. Consistent with previous quarters, MTG

repurchased the most at $193MM (vs. $189MM in 4Q) and an additional $47MM through April

24. ESNT bought back $157MM (vs. $125MM in 4Q) and an additional $57MM in April. NMIH