KEI Industries "Well positioned, but near-term upside limited; downgrade to..."

Research evidence excerpt

KEI Industries "Well positioned, but near-term upside limited; downgrade to..."

of the

03/26E 96.12 96.12 0 96.02

housing wire market still unorganised, formalisation tailwinds are supportive and led by

03/27E 110.90 113.07 2 111.09

increasing awareness of the quality and safety of branded wires. However, rising

03/28E 138.93 139.21 0 134.53

competition from serious newer entrants like Ultratech, Crompton, and Bajaj Electricals

is likely to intensify, which could moderate near-term revenue growth and sustaining Akshay Gattani

recent high revenue growth in wires could become challenging. Analyst

akshay-kumar.gattani@ubs.com

Exports a structural opportunity; limited capacity could limit immediate gains +91-22-6155 6044

India has transitioned from a net importer of cables and wires before 2019 to a net Amit Mahawar

exporter with rising global acceptance of Indian products supported by increasing Analyst

amit.mahawar@ubs.com

country-specific approvals. As a sector leader, KEI has been a key beneficiary with

+91-22-6155 6030

exports growing to Rs18bn in FY26 (vs. Rs7bn in FY23) and export revenue share

improving to 16% (vs. 10%). While the export opportunity is structurally strong, near- Harshita Surana

term upside is constrained by capacity limitations with KEI likely to balance growth Associate Analyst

harshita.surana@ubs.com

between domestic and export markets.

+91-22-6155 6066

Valuation: earnings compounder intact, but reflected in the share price

We believes KEI's earnings compounding track record is intact with a FY26-28E earnings

CAGR of 20%. However, we think this is priced in and downside protection from

volatility that could arise from commodity swings, sudden demand shocks and new

entrants is limited.