Indonesia Consumer Sector "Apr 26: Post-Lebaran normalization at a healt..."

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Consumer Sector "Apr 26: Post-Lebaran normalization at a healt..."

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

Indonesia Consumer Sector Equities

IndonesiaApr 26: Post-Lebaran normalization at a healthy

pace Consumer, Non-Cyclical

Bernice Chew

Analyst

bernice.chew@ubs.com

April retail sales point to smooth normalization, not demand shock +65-6495 3507

Bank Indonesia’s April 2026 indicative Retail Sales Index eased to 231.0, moderating by Permada Darmono

-2% YoY and -10% MoM following the post-Lebaran seasonal peak. Importantly, the Analyst

index level is close to February’s 232.7, suggesting a steady and orderly normalization permada.darmono@ubs.com

rather than a sharp demand drop-off, with MoM declines observed across all segments. +65-6495 3137

This pattern is consistent with consumer company commentary that post-Lebaran Alex Manoonpol

demand has held up better than last year. On a 4M YTD basis, autos and auto parts Analyst

remain the standout outperformer (+14% YoY), followed by cultural and recreation alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

goods (+10%), F&B and tobacco (+5%), and apparel (+2%). Looking ahead, BI’s +662-613 5770

forward-looking indicators point to further normalization in retail activity in June and

September, while price growth expectations have edged higher, with inflation

anticipated to reach ~5% YoY by September. Figures 1-5.

Confidence remains but outlook weakens

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported April 2026 consumer confidence index (CCI) level of

123.01, +1.1% YoY and flat MoM. The Consumer Expectations Index (CEI), which

measures consumers’ outlook on economic conditions six months ahead, moderated

slightly, reflecting broad-based normalization across income expectations, job

availability and business activity outlook. The softening was most pronounced among